Nomogram predictive of 10-year cause-specific mortality in differentiated thyroid cancer

Accurate risk stratification is essential for guiding treatment decisions in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). Although numerous population‑level risk factors for DTC mortality have been identified, they have not been integrated into a tool for individualized prediction. This study developed a nomogram to estimate 10‑year cause‑specific mortality using a historical SEER cohort of 9,654 patients diagnosed between 1985 and 1995. Multivariable Cox regression identified age, gender, extracapsular extension, tumor size, nodal involvement, distant metastasis, and histology as significant predictors. The resulting nomogram demonstrated excellent discrimination (AUC = 0.93) and calibration. This tool provides the first individualized prognostic model for DTC and may improve clinical decision‑making and research stratification.